Puzzle over excess deaths phenomenon in Ireland

Ireland had one of the highest rates of excess deaths in Europe in 2023, latest data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, reveals.

In October, 2023, the period for which most recent data is available, excess mortality stood at 17.8% above average monthly death rates in 2016–2019.

During these pre-covid years, there were about 2,745 deaths monthly in Ireland, or about 33,000 a year, according to Ireland’s Central Statistics Office. So that figure of 17.8% for October represents 489 deaths of people who otherwise would not have been expected to die.

In August, 2023, the number of excess deaths in Ireland was even higher, at 21.3%, representing 585 deaths, before reducing to 12.7% in September and climbing to 17.8% in October.

And yet… and yet… a ‘working paper’ from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), announced by the Irish Department of Health on January 2, 2024, said that Ireland was one of nine OECD countries to avoid excess deaths during the core covid years of 2020–2022, being the fourth lowest rate worldwide after New Zealand, Iceland and Norway.

Eurostat shows that the number of excess deaths in Ireland — where I live, hence my particular interest — during 2023 was regularly among the highest in the EU…